Thoughts on Juan Soto signing with the New York Mets

The sweepstakes are – mercifully – over. Juan Soto has made his decision, signing a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. Naturally, I have a lot of thoughts about this unprecedented deal, so let’s dig in:

• Firstly, this is the largest contract in sports history. It is even bigger than it first appears, though, because if Soto opts-out after the fifth year, the Mets can void his potential exit by increasing the remaining average annual value (AAV) from $51 million to $55 million, taking the overall outlay to $805 million. And based on what we now know about Juan Soto, that is almost certain to happen, so we may as well consider this a 15-year, $805 million commitment from the outset. 

• I’m not really one to get bogged down in player salary comparisons and precedents. Generally, my belief is that Major League Baseball is awash with money – an $11 billion industry, in fact – and the bigger slice of that given to the players, the better product we get to watch as fans. However, in a vacuum, it is wild to me that Juan Soto obliterated the $700 million record contract of Shohei Ohtani. Undoubtedly, Soto is a genius hitter – arguably the best on the planet. And yes, he is 26, meaning teams were effectively bidding to secure his sensational prime. However, Soto is a subpar defender and a plodding baserunner. At best, he is a three-tool player. Granted, two of those tools – the ability to hit, and to hit with power – are exceptional. But Ohtani is literally an elite hitter with power and speed, in addition to being a frontline starting pitcher. Though it is overly simplistic, I like to think the Dodgers gave Ohtani $400 million as a hitter and $300 million as a pitcher. Therefore, giving Soto $805 million to just hit – albeit at an all-world level – seems incongruous. It is not my money, but still, this feels unhinged.

• Ohtani is also an independent industry. By signing him, the Dodgers essentially bought the interest and fandom of rabid baseball fans across Japan. Quite frankly, MLB has never known a more marketable player than Ohtani, and the Dodgers have crushed that opportunity, recouping a vast chunk of their investment via bespoke sponsorship agreements, merchandise sales and contextual brand alliances. Such a range of opportunities likely does not exist with Soto. He is undoubtedly a gate attraction, and the Dominican diaspora worships him, but the commercial potential is comparatively limited. That, again, makes his remuneration a little jarring compared to Ohtani. 

• We are often blinded by the glitzy headline figure of $700 million for Ohtani, but that is also misleading. Present-day money is worth more than future money due to inflation and the ability to grow it through investments. Therefore, the severe deferrals in Ohtani’s deal mean the present-day value of his contract is actually around $460 million, depending on the calculations used and the accountants consulted. This makes Soto’s $805 million, without deferrals, all the more extraordinary. It is so far ahead of every other baseball contract ever signed, in terms of value at the point of agreement, that eyebrows have to be raised. Teams went crazy for Soto, and I’m not convinced that was a prudent strategy.

• The incumbent Yankees offered Soto $760 million over 16 years – a truly incredible proposition in its own right. That is $400 million more than they gave Aaron Judge, the literal team captain. Therefore, I and other Yankees fans cannot be genuinely outraged. If somebody – anybody – turns down $760 million to play baseball for the New York Yankees, that is on them. I do not know what to tell you.

• This, ultimately, is Steve Cohen entering the chat. Ever since he bought the Mets in 2020, he has promised to spare no expense in building a juggernaut. An avalanche of media reports tabbed Soto as Cohen’s white whale, and the general consensus said he would not be outbid as a matter of principle. In truth, for Cohen, a guy whose net worth exceeds $21 billion, what is the point of owning a baseball team and not spending a bajillion dollars on a young megastar whose like will not grace free agency for a generation to come? This quest had existential undertones for Cohen’s Mets mission, and he fulfilled his big-time promise.

• Put simply, the Mets have never poached an in-prime free agent of real consequence away from the crosstown Yankees. Sure, there have been notable players who crossed the East River, but nobody this good, this young, and this beloved by Yankee fans. This, then, is a seismic change in the long-established milieu of New York baseball, which spans more than 175 years. The Mets are no longer the deferential younger brother – forgotten and discarded. They mean business, and they are a force to be reckoned with.

• George Steinbrenner, the Yankees’ larger-than-life patriarch, loathed the Mets. In 1977, when his Yankees lost a spring training game to their upstart enemies, an irate George almost came to blows with field manager Billy Martin in the trainer’s room. And during the 2000 World Series, George infamously had the Yankees’ clubhouse furniture transported from the Bronx to Queens, deeming the Shea Stadium amenities inadequate. George would hate this, but dwelling on that does not really help anyone moving forwards.

• Indeed, we will hear a lot of scathing indictments of Hal Steinbrenner in the coming days. As ever, people will scold him for supposedly failing to live up to his father’s standards. I will not join that chorus, however. Not on this occasion. It can never credibly be said again that Hal does not have the appetite to spend money. I mean, he just offered a contract unprecedented in the history of professional sports to one guy. Sure, he might not be like his father in terms of ruthlessly upholding elite standards with impulsive reactions – firing people out of a cannon unless they win a ring – but maybe that is not a bad thing, after all. Hal has spent at levels that would even make George’s eyes water. Oh, and Cohen would have outbid George, too. Remember that.

• In the abstract, $805 million sounds like a lot, and for most people, it assuredly is. But not to Steve Cohen. In fact, to him, a yearly outlay of $55 million is – well – trivial. Tomorrow, he could sell a few stocks from his enormous portfolio specifically to cover Soto’s annual pay. This is no big financial deal to him. He can just sit back, wait for everyone else to make their offers, then beat whatever figure is slid across the table. That is a novel concept in MLB, and rival fans will have to get used to it. 

• As I have regularly reiterated, gone are the days of Yankee hegemony. Once mighty, the Steinbrenner dollar has been surpassed in potency by that of Cohen and, out west, Guggenheim with the Dodgers. Accordingly, the Mets and Dodgers are now positioned to go head-to-head in a turbocharged war, akin to the Yankees-Red Sox battle that defined the 2000s. That will be fun to watch, even as baseball’s finances go nuclear.

• Overall, however, I do not think this is disastrous for the Yankees. Disappointing? Yes. Chastening? Certainly. But catastrophic? No. Of course, disgusted Yankee fans are already burning #22 Soto jerseys, and I get the raw visceral reaction. Heck, I sat in the right field stands myself last season, wearing one of those jerseys, and fell in love with Soto’s charismatic camaraderie. And yet, still, I believe there are multiple pathways for the Yankees to improve in 2025. In pure baseball terms, losing Soto is not cataclysmic.

• Respectfully, Soto is not a well-rounded player. At the plate, he is a savant. But defensively, he is a well below-average adventure. I struggled with the notion of the Yankees putting him in right field for five years, let alone 15. At the very least, that headache no longer exists.

• Personally, my best offer to Soto, for the Yankees, would have been 14 years and $560 million with an opt-out after the fifth year, when he is aged 30. Obviously, that would have been blown out of the water, but so be it. Such an offer would have guaranteed Soto $200 million for five years, then he could have opted-out and tried to better the remaining nine years and $360 million. If not, he would have stayed in pinstripes through his age-39 season, while protecting Judge’s AAV as the Yankees’ high-water mark. Hal went above and beyond even my best offer, so I cannot seriously complain. 

• Sure, it is not my money, and the Yankees are the most lucrative baseball team on earth, but there is still a team chemistry dynamic to consider here. Judge is the captain, The Guy. This is his team, his era. And though Judge stated a desire for Soto to return regardless of the cost, I had a really hard time imagining the Yankees paying anybody more than him on an annual basis. We lived through that awkwardness with Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, and that unspoken resentment held the Yankees back in the 2000s, so I’m sure Brian Cashman – for one – was keen to avoid a repeat. 

• Also, while we are on the subject, Judge’s nine-year, $360 million extension already looks like an outrageous bargain, just two years after it was signed. Sure, the playoff production has been underwhelming, but people do not realise how good Aaron Judge truly is. Of course, Judge was a free agent at 30, diluting his overall bounty somewhat, but managing to keep him in pinstripes for under $450 million, given the prevailing market trends, was a coup by Hal Steinbrenner. Oh, and never forget that Judge rejected $415 million from the Padres to stay with the Yankees. That loyalty further distinguishes him as a franchise immortal.

• This is undoubtedly an unpopular opinion, but overall, I think there is a certain staid dignity in the Yankees’ refusal to pierce a new fiscal stratosphere for Soto. Though it may frustrate some fans, there is something classy and respectful in the Yankees knowing their own worth, making their best offer, and refusing to fuel Scott Boras’ farcical fever dream any further. To reiterate, I wanted Soto to remain a Yankee, but not for $805 million. Remaining sober, and refusing to become delusional, is to the Yankees’ credit in this debacle. I’m proud of how they conducted themselves. 

• I understand the Yankees print money, and running annual payrolls in excess of $300 million should not be an issue for them, but there are financial constraints to consider for this organisation – especially with regard to luxury tax surcharges and penalties, which become increasingly prohibitive with each year of excess.

• Just look at a practical example if the Yankees did re-sign Soto for a $51 million AAV. They would have had around $25 million left, after bringing him back, to improve their 2025 roster – unless Hal was comfortable exceeding $350 million in payroll. He has explicitly stated an aversion to such levels of roster spending – and perhaps understandably so. If we get to a point where spending $400 million is required to compete for championships, baseball has a serious problem.

• Let me remind you that, though they won the pennant, the 2024 Yankees were a flawed, top-heavy team. We saw that in the World Series, as a lack of baseline fundamentals haunted the Bronx Bombers. So, in a realistic universe, I always struggled to see how they could bring back Soto, meet his AAV demands, and still improve their roster. Understand that, from the 2024 team, Clay Holmes is already gone, while Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo are almost certain to follow him. Returning to the example above, then, I cannot see how the Yankees could have re-signed Soto and improved at second base, left field and in the bullpen without exceeding $360 million in 2025 payroll. I was never confident Hal would sanction such a dramatic uptick, and, quite frankly, I defend his decision not to. If Cashman needs $360 million to build a winning ballclub, he is not very efficient at his job.

• Ultimately, if the Yankees re-signed Soto, they would have made Caleb Durbin the second baseman and played Jasson Domínguez in left field. I was not necessarily against those moves, but expecting two youngsters to outperform what the Yankees got from those positions in 2024 – admittedly a low bar – is no given. Domínguez, in particular, must now stand up and deliver on his otherworldly potential, while the Yankees have renewed flexibility to pursue upgrades at multiple positions.

• This, naturally, leads us to the Yankees’ much-discussed Plan B. Cashman probably has $75 million to spread around the field and rebalance a lopsided roster into a more well-rounded winner.

• Personally, I believe the Yankees’ Plan B must begin with run prevention. And that means returning Judge to right field, where he will stay for the foreseeable future, incurring less wear and tear on that humongous body. Then, I would swing a trade with the Cubs for Cody Bellinger and Nico Hoerner, to play centre field and second base, respectively. I would also sign Jurickson Profar to play left field; Christian Walker to play first base; and delve into the pitching market for Tanner Scott and one of Corbin Burnes, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer or Walker Buehler.

• To me, in 2025, a hypothetical axis of Bellinger, Hoerner, Profar, Walker, Scott and Buehler could outperform that of Soto, Domínguez, Durbin, Ben Rice and Clarke Schmidt. Of course, the Yankees could have signed Soto and traded for Bellinger/Hoerner, or signed Walker regardless, but there was no realistic paradigm where they could have landed Soto, Bellinger, Horner, Profar, Walker, Scott and Buehler. Therefore, how you feel about letting Soto leave hinges on the production you foresee from those two groups, each costing around $75 million in 2025 salary.

• This is perhaps a little delirious, but could Mike Trout be a serious under-the-radar target for the Yankees, as they look to replace a Soto-shaped hole in their lineup? I have major reservations about this, given Trout’s recent injury record and the fact he is under team control through age 40. The financial aspect of that contract – Trout is owed $229 million over six years from here – does not bother me at this stage. I just fear Trout could quickly become a positional albatross – akin to Giancarlo Stanton – and that is probably why Cashman will look elsewhere for reinforcements.

• We will hear a lot of recriminations and analyses of the package – Michael King, Kyle Higashioka, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Drew Thorpe – Cashman gave to San Diego for one season of Soto, but I have no regrets about that. King is good, but give me that one season of Soto and a pennant over him every day of the week. When you are the New York Yankees, you have to go big and expend resources to build championship-calibre teams. Buyers’ remorse cannot exist at this deep end of the market.

• Moving away from New York briefly, we should also consider what this deal means for the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Dodgers – all of whom were involved in the sweepstakes right down to the final day. Firstly, for Boston, this feels like more of the same, ultimately. They spoke of spending big, but again have nothing tangible to show for it. They may well pivot and land an ace they desperately need, but one has to wonder how genuine Red Sox ownership really was in this entire Soto pursuit. Lord knows, they desperately needed a dose of good PR, following the Mookie Betts debacle and years of self-imposed austerity. Maybe the McKinsey types who audited the Sox this year recommended a little manufactured optimism pre-Christmas. It never worked, because Juan Soto is heading to Queens, and raised hopes served only to deepen the sting for jilted Red Sox fans.

• According to reports, the Red Sox offered Soto $700 million, which makes their refusal to give Betts $400 million even more egregiously illogical. The capriciousness of Fenway Sports Group is ludicrous and insulting. In fact, it would make Harry Frazee Landing Soto would have gone some way to correcting the Ruthian ouster of Betts, but philosophical inconsistency undermined the Red Sox once again.

• Soto rejecting Boston is good news for Liverpool fans, as per the metered, rotational spending of FSG. It is no coincidence that, yesterday, Liverpool finally offered Mo Salah a contract extension, complementing deals put forth to Trent Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk. Expect those extensions to be signed imminently, with the Red Sox landing a starter – Burnes or Max Fried – to vaguely placate everyone in the FSG orbit.

• I was never really convinced the Dodgers were serious about adding Soto to their cornucopia of talent, but the mere fact they were involved reiterates their commitment to overturning every rock in pursuit of dominance. They are opportunistic and ready to strike. Oh, and they offered Soto more than $600 million, too. However, maybe it was good for baseball that he signed elsewhere. Again, this positions the Mets as epochal enemies to the Dodgers, and that will be fascinating to watch.

• The Blue Jays missed out on another big-ticket free agent, and that may cajole regime change in Toronto. Without Soto coming aboard as a foil, and given the exorbitant contract he just landed, impending free agents Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are probably done with the Blue Jays. Ross Atkins and his front office brain trust could suffer a similar fate, as Toronto continues to search for an identity.

• In closing, I leave you with this: the Mets visit Yankee Stadium for a three-game Subway Series on May 16-18 next year. Get your tickets now, because that will be one rowdy crowd in the Boogie Down. Soto should bring ear muffs.