Rōki Sasaki is the Red Sox’ panacea, but they probably won’t sign him

Every once in a while, the perfect player to fill a nagging need becomes available for the optimal team. Kylian Mbappé with Real Madrid. Juan Soto with the Yankees. LeBron James with the Lakers. Well, this winter, the Boston Red Sox have such a rare opportunity – their chronic hunger for young, elite starting pitching overlapping with the availability of an ideal, affordable prodigy.

Rōki Sasaki, the 23-year-old phenom due to be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan, is Boston’s ultimate antidote – a cost-controlled, flame-throwing starlet who has the potential to anchor a rotation for many years to come. But, alas, he is also a perfect metaphor for the Red Sox’ elective impotence – another sustainable star they will probably not sign due to self-imposed restraints amid a sprawling existential crisis.

Pitchers this good, this young, are rarely posted by Japanese clubs – and for good reason, as NPB prospects under the age of 25 can be signed to amateur contracts using international bonus pool money, yielding smaller posting fees, rather than courting the highest bidder with similarly bloated kickbacks. Shohei Ohtani is perhaps the closest comparison, as he signed a $2.315 million minor league pact with the Angels aged 23, but even Shohei is eclipsed as a pitching prospect by Sasaki.

In four seasons with the Marines, Sasaki has a 30-15 record, a 2.02 ERA, an 0.883 WHIP and an 11.4 K/9 ratio. His fastball has reached 103 mph and regularly sits in triple-digits, while a devastating splitter and deceptive slider equip Sasaki with ‘the best raw stuff in the world,’ per the respected Daniel Brim of Dodgers Digest. Indulging tricky NPB translations somewhat, Sasaki is essentially Paul Skenes in a more slender body. To watch him pitch is to dream of dominance.  

One game, in April 2022, encapsulated that fantasy. Facing the Orix Buffaloes, Sasaki pitched a perfect game with 19 strikeouts, including 13 in a row. The latter set a new world record for top flight professional baseball, beating the 10 consecutive whiffs recorded by Corbin Burnes, Tom Seaver and Aaron Nola, respectively. Sasaki followed that start by pitching a further eight perfect innings his next time out – 52 straight batters retired by his electric arsenal.

That arsenal also gained international exposure during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, as Sasaki played on the victorious Japanese national team alongside Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Yu Darvish, Shōta Imanaga, Masataka Yoshida and Lars Nootbaar. Sasaki went 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 7.2 innings during the tournament, further burnishing his prodigious credentials.

Ohtani aside, indeed, Sasaki may be the greatest pitching prospect – in talent divided by age – to ever emerge from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB). Yamamoto has a decent claim to that crown, but he was two years older than Sasaki when signing with the Dodgers last year. Junichi Tazawa, a bittersweet cult hero of a different Red Sox age, is also worthy of study in this debate, but ultimately, Sasaki is an altogether more exciting elixir – especially for Boston.

Theoretically, the Red Sox should have interest in such a cost-effective asset regardless of his position. Naturally, big market teams covet big market players. However, the fact Sasaki meets the Red Sox’ gravest need – an ace whose developmental timeline matches that of a slow-evolving core – broadens his appeal. In fact, it makes him a must-have for the Red Sox, if their vague vision for renewed relevance is to be believed.

Since 2018, when Chris Sale was last Chris Sale in Boston, the Red Sox have lacked that bonafide bulldog. Brayan Bello has the potential. Tanner Houck has shown occasional glimpses. Nick Pivetta and Nathan Eovaldi provided sporadic frontline imitations. But finding that guy to slot atop the rotation for a half-dozen years has been incredibly difficult. And that vacuum has underpinned three last-place finishes in five years, to the chagrin of jaded fans.

Craig Breslow was hired as the Red Sox’ chief baseball officer in 2023, replacing the toothless Chaim Bloom, and the new regimen was tasked with delivering renewable long-term success within prescribed – and reduced – budgets. Building on subterranean work by Bloom and his predecessor, Dave Dombrowski, Breslow has weathered a storm while protecting a young, financially-flexible core honed for repeatable success. And any avenue to fortify that foundation should be explored.

Just look at Boston’s stable of young talent. Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Connor Wong and Houk are 28. Brayan Bello and Wilyer Abreu are 25. Ceddanne Rafaela and Triston Casas are 24. Vaughn Grissom is 23. Meanwhile, down on a vaunted farm, the Big 4 of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell and Kyle Teel are all 22 or younger.

Though they are painfully unwilling to articulate it, the Red Sox’ plan seemingly relies on these players coalescing into a nucleus that makes Boston competitive for a decade-plus. In free agency and via trades, Breslow will seek to augment that hub with premium spokes that match the developmental timeline and, thus, the competitive window. At least, that is the hope beleaguered fans cling to. But only action can affirm the rhetoric.

Aside from Bello and Houk, difference-making pitching is conspicuously absent from the current crop matriculating in Boston and Worcester. Per the imperious Sox Prospects, Luis Perales is the Red Sox’ top pitching hope, but he only ranks sixth in their overall rankings and underwent Tommy John Surgery in June. The next-best arm, David Sandlin, does not even make the organisational Top-10.

External reinforcement is essential, therefore. And looking at potential targets, expendable White Sox ace Garrett Crochet matches the timeline, as do the Mariners’ phalanx of homegrown starters. They are the kind of in-prime pitchers Boston should prioritise, rather than investing in 30-year-old veterans – such as the aforementioned Burnes, or Max Fried – whose past performance will likely outweigh their future contributions. 

Sure, there is an argument that such established bulwarks can enrich the development of Boston’s younger core, by sharing wisdom and instructing the greener upstarts in the finer arts of winning, but those attributes can be acquired without spending $200 million. Positionally, the likes of Teoscar Hernández, Tommy Pham, Jason Heyward or Joc Pederson could fulfil that pedagogic function for a fraction of the cost. JD Martinez or Andrew McCutchen, too. Similarly, in terms of sagacious pitchers, more manageable deals with guys like Eovaldi, Justin Verlander or Shane Bieber seem logical. Heck, Boston could even sign Tomoyuki Sugano – another Japanese pitching legend, who will finally be posted this winter aged 35 – as a useful Sasaki chaperone. Options exist to bridge the gap.

Sure, in a few years, as the homegrown core develops, spend the money and go all-in for a supplemental ace who really moves the needle. Crochet, Tarik Skubal and Jesús Luzardo are all free agents after 2026, for instance. But for the time being, Boston should seek incremental upgrades to a .500 team that finished 13 games out in the AL East. Keep building the long-term core instead of artificially shunting the timeline. Sign Rōki Sasaki now to make future splashes more impactful.

If media reports are to be believed, however, the Red Sox have little chance of landing Sasaki, regardless of how much sense he makes for them. Inevitably, the Dodgers are considered unanimous favourites, the lure of a vogue juggernaut turbocharged by the presence of Ohtani and Yamamoto. As for Boston? Well, the Sox’ recruiting message will be scrambled by an identity crisis immune to simplistic solution.

A mediocre malaise has engulfed the Red Sox in recent years, with Fenway Sports Group (FSG), the aloof ownership group, focusing on other projects. As John Henry, the shadowy monarch, has purchased other things – newspapers, soccer teams, ice hockey franchises, golf ventures – the Red Sox have been relegated to a nondescript line item on a soulless portfolio spreadsheet. Hence the prevailing distrust, born of ownership apathy, that Boston will ever rekindle its bygone baseball fire.

To that end, the senseless trade of Mookie Betts still looms over this franchise like a dense, black cloud – a modern equivalent of the Babe Ruth debacle that knocked the Red Sox off-course for eight decades. Ownership has little appetite to spend big on stars, and fans were burned the last time Boston tried to build a homegrown core – Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi and Eduardo Rodriguez following Betts out the door. That confused sense of self repels marquee talent, because the Red Sox do not have a clear and convincing message to put forward.

That, ultimately, is why Rōki Sasaki will probably land elsewhere. Thanks to the early posting, and the attendant bonus pool restrictions, money will not play a major role in these sweepstakes. Every MLB team can – and should – pursue Sasaki, who will sign for close to what the Red Sox paid Chris Martin last year. That, in theory, should make Sasaki even more appealing to FSG, but the uncertainty sewn by its growing intransigence will likely undermine a recruitment process centred on the ‘fluffier’ aspects of player development mastered by the Dodgers, Rays, Cubs and others.  

Of course, Sasaki may well be a bust. He has pitched a relatively small number of professional innings, and whispers persist about past injuries and the potential for more given his gangly frame. Moreover, he is only 23, and the transition from NPB to MLB is often difficult, as evidenced by several Japanese sensations who flamed out prematurely.

However, the point is, if the Red Sox do not go all-in for a guy like this – with all the theoretical attributes they desperately desire – who will they go all-in for? And, perhaps more pertinently, what reason can ownership possible conjure for not landing Sasaki, apart from their proposition – once among the most alluring in sports – now failing to impress the biggest and the best?

Accordingly, Rōki Sasaki personifies the Red Sox’ philosophical paradox. Almost reflexively, hearkening back to a previous era, they feel somewhat obliged to chase such glittering prizes, but ownership is tentative and the front office is hamstrung. Boston is stuck between what it once was, what it ought to be, and what it actually is. Sasaki is a barometer of that indifference, and the success or failure of Breslow’s pitch will serve as an epochal bell-weather.

Where Sasaki chooses to sign is, rightfully, his prerogative, and the free market will do its thing. Boston has obviously missed out on idealist targets before, as have all teams, but this chase feels especially significant. The Red Sox need to prove their mojo still exists, and that they can conjure it on command.

The big, bad Red Sox once went toe-to-toe with anyone for superstars of real consequence. Sure, they occasionally came up short – see: Alex Rodriguez, José Contreras, Mark Teixeira – but they often landed the guy they needed when they needed him most, from David Price and Daisuke Matsuzaka to Curt Schilling and Manny Ramirez.

This time around, though, unless Henry and Breslow show Red Sox fans something – unless they repay what they owe after years of annoying self-suppression – further frustration is on deck. Sure, Boston diehards can daydream about Rōki Sasaki as the Hot Stove splutters into action, but wiser acolytes know not to get overly excited. After all, the Sox are probably tinkering with excuses as we speak, because they are the masters of plausible deniability.


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