Vlad Guerrero Jr. wants no part of the Yankees, and they should want no part of him
As a pinstriped traditionalist, I usually argue for the Yankees to pursue marquee free agents to honour their brand, tradition and standards of excellence. Rōki Sasaki, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper – I wanted them all in the Bronx. In the case of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., however, I implore the Yankees not to get involved – for the very same reasons.
The slugging starlet made headlines this week by signalling his intent to become a free agent at season’s end, when the Blue Jays’ club control expires. The start of spring training became a de facto deadline in contract extension talks, and with no deal forthcoming, Guerrero Jr. confirmed his likely path to the open market.
“They expressed what they had,” Guerrero Jr. told reporters. “I expressed what I had. I’m here, and didn’t get an agreement. Now, they’re going to have to compete with 29 more teams.”
GM Ross Atkins said Toronto offered Guerrero Jr. a franchise record extension, which would have made him ‘one of the highest paid players in baseball.’ As is his prerogative, Guerrero Jr. rejected those overtures, suggesting they did not come close to meeting his expectations. Both sides left open the prospect of further discussions, but the die has been cast, and a midseason trade has not been ruled out.
Conjecture has long linked Guerrero Jr. and the Yankees, who always shop for elite talent. Therefore, it was unsurprising to see fresh rumours emerge just hours after Guerrero Jr. briefed the media on his future. Several insiders, led by Jon Heyman, cited the Yankees as an early favourite to land Guerrero Jr., sparking excitement in some parts of the fanbase.
Why, then, do I not want the Yankees to get involved? A perennial threat to hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI, Guerrero Jr. is a four-time All-Star who does not turn 26 until March. He is a career .288 hitter who once led the majors with a 48-homer season. Not wanting him seems crazy. Except, well, Guerrero Jr. has often expressed strong anti-Yankee sentiments, and such stinging remarks are not easily forgotten.
“I like to kill the Yankees,” Guerrero Jr. said in a November 2022 radio interview with El Dotol Nastra. “I would never sign with the Yankees. Not even dead.”
Of course, we all say dumb things in moments of weakness, but Guerrero Jr. doubled down on his comments during a Yankees-Blue Jays series early in the 2023 season. “I will never change that,” he said, when quizzed by reporters. “It goes back to my family. That’s my decision.”
The exact details of this supposed family grudge have never been explained, but some observers attribute it to the Yankees’ pursuit of Vlad’s father in free agency after the 2003 season. By most accounts, Yankees GM Brian Cashman almost signed Vlad Guerrero Sr., only for franchise patriarch George Steinbrenner to scotch the deal in favour of a pact with Gary Sheffield.
Vlad Sr. eventually signed with the Angels, where he burnished his lore with an MVP award and perpetual All-Star selections. And while he may have felt jilted by the Yankees, public utterances to that effect are hard to find – if they exist at all. Privately, of course, Vlad Sr. may have harboured resentment towards the Yankees for his perceived mistreatment, but he did pretty well for himself, regardless. The entire debacle seems a little overwrought.
Guerrero Jr. did partially walk back his Yankee hate last season, but at a time that suited him – namely, just before the trade deadline, with the Blue Jays buried and the Yankees searching for offensive upgrades. “Sometimes, one says things,” Guerrero Jr. told Virus Deportivo. “But this is a business. I sat down and spoke with my dad and my family, and this is a business. And I said I would never again talk about this topic, and lots of people have asked me about it.”
Notwithstanding familial animosity, you do not get to badmouth an organisation then expect it to bid for your services. And certainly not for more than $400 million, which is the reported asking price. That would hypocritical. It would also speak to an undercurrent of entitlement that makes modern ballplayers increasingly aloof.
Ultimately, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wants no part of the Yankees, and the Yankees should want no part of him. That way, everyone is happy, and we can all get on with our lives. It is a business, after all, and the Yankees should mind their own.
Sure, people change their opinions, and time is a great healer, but Guerrero Jr.’s Yankee denunciations were so emphatic as to negate the prospect of swift reconciliation. Why should the Yankees, a proud institution, give Guerrero Jr. the chance to reject them? His prior rhetoric does not warrant such an opportunity, and withholding it would show dignified discernment.
The Yankees will make exceptions for players who are good enough. See: Roger Clemens. And other superstars have rejected the pinstriped allure, including Greg Maddux and Ken Griffey Jr. However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not nearly as good as his hype suggests, and the Yankees would be better served letting somebody else sign that decade-plus deal.
Do not mistake my stance here. Guerrero Jr. is a very good hitter. He is not great, though, despite the publicity. In fact, since debuting in 2019, his total WAR has been eclipsed by mere mortals like Bryan Reynolds, Brandon Nimmo and Eugenio Suárez in a similar amount of games. Even Pete Alonso, who the Yankees ignored this winter, has accumulated more WAR than Guerrero Jr. in that span, while Cody Bellinger, a new Bronx recruit, falls just 0.5 WAR behind.
Yes, Guerrero Jr. is a strong offensive force whose overall analytics are skewed by middling-to-poor defence. He ranks 13th in wRC+ since 2019. Yet empirically, I do not consider Guerrero Jr. in the Judge-Soto-Ohtani echelon. The Harper-Freeman-Betts tier may also be a stretch. Undoubtedly, Guerrero Jr. hits really well against the Yankees – he has 14 career home runs at the new Stadium – but hyperbole has long shrouded his performance, and I’m unconvinced his future is a safe investment.
Admittedly, there is a strong positional fit between Guerrero Jr. and the Yankees, who will field a 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt at first base this season. Once the preserve of Gehrig, Mattingly and Giambi, that position has become a recurring problem for the Yankees in recent years. Anthony Rizzo was decent, Luke Voit showed glimpses of productivity, and DJ LeMahieu has filled-in diligently, but ever since Mark Teixeira’s body betrayed him, an ignominious procession of spare parts has besmirched that proud corner of the Yankee infield. The ghost of Jay Bruce even got 10 games there in 2021, which says it all, really. The next long-term incumbent is sorely needed.
That said, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does not fit the bill. Not for me, at least. Instead, the Yankees should prioritise Munetaka Murakami, the 25-year-old masher set to be posted by the Yakult Swallows of Japan following the 2025 season. A two-time MVP and former Rookie of the Year, the lefty-swinging Murakami has topped 30 homers five separate times in NPB, including a 56-homer season that saw him brush shoulders with Sadaharu Oh and other luminaries of the Japanese game. For the Yankees, he is the young slugging first baseman I’m dreaming on. Not Guerrero Jr.
Naturally, the Dodgers are likely favourites to land Murakami, who, like many Japanese exports, has expressed a west coast preference while courting MLB interest. He was asked about the Yankees on a Japanese chat show, however, and admitted interest in the pinstripes. The feeling seems to be mutual, as reported by Yankees play-by-play man Michael Kay, adding to the intrigue.
Realistically, of course, the Yankees may end up with neither Murakami nor Guerrero Jr. A lot will unfold between now and their respective periods of availability, and free agent spending by Hal Steinbrenner can be capricious. Still, I would not chastise the Yankees for passing on Guerrero Jr., as they did with Harper and Machado. I would praise them, in fact. It would reaffirm Yankee Pride.